The Daily Tipster is a tipping service that analyses the horse racing markets and selects the horses for which we expect the price to fall, so that the price at the off (starting price or SP) will, on average, be lower than the price with the selected bookmakers at the time of the selection.

What does this mean ?

The starting price is determined by the money that has been placed on a particular horse up to the start of the race. (On the exchanges it is also determined by the money offered at SP). In theory it is the most accurate reflection of the probablity that the horse will win the race because it is informed by all the market information up to that point in time. However, before the race it is often possible to get a different price with the bookmakers which may be higher or lower than the eventual starting price. The trick is to know which way the price is going to move.

How does this help me make money?

If the probability of a horse winning a race is 1 in 10, then the true odds would be 10 in decimal format, or 9/1 in fractional format (i.e. the horse is expected to lose 9 races for every one that it wins). If you backed the horse £1 in ten races with the same odds and probability of winning then you would expect the horse to win once and lose 9 times. Your total return would be £10 and the total amount staked would be £10, so you would break even. This is what you would expect because you are backing the horse at odds which reflect the true probability of the horse winning.

Now, suppose you could back the horse at odds which are greater than the true probability of winning. For the example above, suppose you could back the horse at 11 (in decimal) or 10/1 (in fractional). The horse still has the same probability of winning as before, so out of ten races you would expect to win one and lose nine. However, this time your total return would be £11 and your total amount staked would be £10. i.e. you would expect to have a profit of £1. Another way to view this is that by backing at odds which are 10% above the true probability of the horse winning, you can expect to make 10% return over and above your amount staked in the long term. That is what the selections from The Daily Tipster can help you to do.

Of course it is not possible to predict what will happen in any particular race. That is why we do not claim to tip winners. What we do is far more useful - we tip the price! On average we aim to select horses for which the price is 10% above the starting price. Sometimes it will be more than that, sometimes less and sometimes the price will be lower than starting price, but on average we aim for 10% over starting price.

For those who are familiar with using the betting exchanges (e.g. Betfair or Betdaq) to back or lay against horses there is another way that this information can be useful. By backing at the selected price and then laying on the exchange at a lower price you can lock in a profit irrespective of whether the horse wins or loses. For example, if you back a horse £1 at 11 (in decimal) or 10/1 (in fractional) and then wait for the price to fall and then lay the horse £1.10 on the exchange at 10 (in decimal) or 9/1 (in fractional) then if the horse wins the race you make £10 on the back bet and lose £9.90 on the lay bet, making 10p profit in total. If the horse loses you lose £1 on the back bet and make £1.10 profit on the lay bet. Again you are 10p in profit.

The selections made by the Daily Tipster are intended, on average, to be those for which the bookmaker has set the price too high. Therefore, the bookmaker will eventually adjust the price to bring it into line with the eventual starting price. The opportunity to take the bookmaker's price may be short lived, so it is important to take the price while it is available.

Disclaimer

Bets placed based on the selections made by Daily Tipster are at the user's own risk. We accept no responsibilty for any losses incurred. We do not guarantee to select winners, or for the selections to produce a positive return on investment. The information used to make the selections is taken from third parties. Therefore, we accept no responsibility for the accuracy of the information presented on this website.

Due to the reliance on third party sources of information, it will sometimes not be possible to bring you our selections if the third party information becomes unavailable.